Moonhollows: December 2014

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

[H263.Ebook] Download Ebook Everything is Possible with God Participant's Guide with DVD: Understanding the Six Phases of Faith, by Rick Warren

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Everything is Possible with God Participant's Guide with DVD: Understanding the Six Phases of Faith, by Rick Warren

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This six-session small group Bible study from Pastor Rick Warren, Everything is Possible with God, helps you recognize, understand, and cooperate in the predictable patterns and processes God uses to strengthen your faith and develop your character.

How’s your faith? Strong or weak? Is it steady or stretched? It’s an important question, because there’s a lot riding on your answer. More importantly, would you like your faith to be stronger? That’s what this six-session study from “America’s most influential spiritual leader” is all about.

Faith, according to Pastor Rick Warren, is like a muscle. It needs to be exercised and developed. And God uses a predictable pattern and process to build your faith. It’s what Warren calls the Six Phases of Faith. Once you understand these six phases, you can cooperate with God in the process of strengthening your faith and building your character.

Everything is Possible with God is a groundbreaking small group bible study that helps you uncover and participate in God’s unique plan and purpose for your life.

This Study Guide is filled with helpful discussion starters, video overviews, a helpful Leader’s Guide and much more. It’s designed to be used with the companion Everything is Possible with God DVD (both included in this pack).

Sessions include:
1. How God Builds Your Faith
2. God’s Dream for Your Life
3. How to Make Wise Decisions
4. Delayed by Design
5. How to Deal with Difficulty
6. From Dead End to Deliverance

�

Sales Rank: #1227330 in Books
Brand: HarperCollins Christian Pub.
Published on: 2010-12-07
Released on: 2010-12-07
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.02" h x .75" w x 5.98" l, .40 pounds
Binding: Paperback
71 pages

About the Author

Dr. Rick Warren is pastor, author, global strategist, theologian, and philanthropist.� His book The Purpose driven Life has been called the bestselling non-fiction hardback in publishing history by Publishers Weekly, having sold more than 32 million copies.� Warren founded Saddleback Church in 1980 with his wife, Kay.� In addition to a 120-acre campus in Lake Forest, CA, the church has ten satellite campuses in Southern California and three international campuses.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By pete c.
outstanding teaching from Rick Warren. Watch this and you'll never look at faith the same way again.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
It's ok, but I'm not sure if I can apply it practically
By Laurie
This is insightful and easy to understand. I don't think this series is Rick Warren's best work. I find I have to explain a lot of things he says because there is contradiction--but there is contradiction in life. We have done most of the series and I don't think that most of our group gets it. Our group has the DVD which is necessary. For Rick's material, you need both.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Gerald C. Garrison
Excellent series. It has helped me tremendously.

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Wednesday, December 10, 2014

[V359.Ebook] Ebook Download Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting, by Charles W. Chase

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An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting

Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts.

Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting
Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works
Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts

Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.

Sales Rank: #209589 in Books
Brand: Brand: Wiley
Published on: 2013-08-19
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.23" w x 6.30" l, 1.30 pounds
Binding: Hardcover
384 pages

Features

Used Book in Good Condition

From the Inside Flap

To become demand-driven, your business needs to identify the right market signals, build demand-sensing capabilities, define demand-shaping processes, and effectively translate demand signals to create a more effective response. Doable? Now it is, with Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition.

Distinctive for its attention to practical demand forecasting challenges, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition is completely updated with a detailed look at improving the forecasting process to better meet customer demands. Author and demand forecasting leader Charles Chase presents both comprehensive coverage of statistical methods as well as how to apply them in practice within a demand-driven forecasting process using actual data and examples.

Featuring new case studies and examples, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition includes the contributions of the latest theoretical developments, while presenting current empirical findings and technology advancements. The new edition features new coverage on demand-shifting, nonseasonal and seasonal ARIMA models, transfer functions, and cross-correlation function plots.

Plus, the Second Edition explores:

Weighted combined modeling
New product forecasting using structured judgment
Application of additive and multiplicative Winters methods
Using graphical methods and plots to understand statistical output
The most recent developments in demand-driven forecasting

Essential reading for every professional responsible for forecasting and demand planning, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition provides you with proven processes, methodologies, and performance metrics you can apply immediately for significant improvement in forecast accuracy.

From the Back Cover

Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting

"Charlie Chase is one of the top thought leaders in the business forecasting community, making him eminently qualified to write what I consider to be the definitive book on demand-driven forecasting. This Second Edition takes the reader from a review of the most basic forecasting methods, to the most advanced time-series methods, and then on to the most innovative techniques in use today."
—Lawrence "Larry" Lapide, PhD, Research Affiliate, MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics Lecturer, University of Massachusetts, Recipient of the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning's inaugural Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning Award

"It is with profound pleasure that I am endorsing one of my favorite books, Demand-Driven Forecasting, by one of the sharpest minds in the field of business forecasting. Charlie Chase has created a truly holistic book, which allows a rare focus on key methodologies and real business challenges that is highly relevant for CPG companies. This Second Edition has expanded into the field of new product forecasting, a key discipline that makes or breaks forecasting success in a world of increasingly shorter product life cycles. In short: If you are looking for a book on forecasting that has it all, then you have found it. Demand-Driven Forecasting is a must-read."
—Lauge Valentin, Director of Forecasting, The LEGO Group

"Charlie Chase has delivered a text that provides forecasters at all levels with practical knowledge and the quantitative tools that will allow them to make a significant leap in modeling and predicting demand. Using plain and concise language, he integrates real-world examples with discussions of advanced statistical methods to demonstrate how to develop forecasting solutions by applying the power of analytics. Those in forecasting will benefit from the knowledge found in this book and by keeping it handy as a valuable reference."
—Glenn Keltner, PhD, Manager, Demand Planning Development, Nestle Purina PetCare Company

About the Author

CHARLES W. CHASE Jr. is the Chief Industry Consultant in SAS's Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice, where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers' supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty-six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
This book is a gem!
By A Customer
This is an excellent book on applied demand forecasting. As such, I am using it as a textbook in my MBA-level forecasting class. I was looking for a book that would be appropriate for my students as future managers, decision-makers and forecast analysts. There are many excellent theoretical treatments of forecasting and time series analysis. (I know because my doctoral dissertation was on forecasting.) However, these books focus solely on the statistics/econometrics and ignore important practical considerations in demand forecasting. These books would be not appropriate for my students. Similarly, there are a lot of practically-oriented forecasting books with good insights and sound advice. (I know because I have several years of industry experience.) However, many of these books lack (or assume that you already know) the basics of forecasting. So, these books would not be appropriate for my students, either. But when I came across “Demand-Driven Forecasting”, I knew it was a gem! This book gives you a solid understanding of how demand forecasting is done in practice, illustrates common problems forecasters face and explains the politics behind forecasting. Given this background, the statistical material presented in this book make so much more sense that it would otherwise. I recommend this book to any forecasting practitioner. In my opinion, this is the best introduction for a novice forecaster. But a more experienced forecaster would also find many valuable improvement ideas in this book.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Practical and Comprehensive
By Mark Quinn
I found the second edition of this book to be both practical and comprehensive. It discusses today's growing, numerous forecasting challenges and offers comprehensive insights into how to become "demand-driven" using excellent easy-to-understand examples. There are many real data examples and several that seem to be based on the author’s experience. There is emphasis on using graphical methods and plots to understand the analysis and statistical output. The author’s perspective is that demand forecasting is much more than just fitting models to historical demand data. Although explaining and understanding the past history of demand is important, it is not always adequate for improving accurately. I agree that combining data, analytics, and domain knowledge is the only formula for successful demand forecasting. The book includes the most recent developments in demand-driven forecasting process implementation.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Great book. Most forecasting books take a very statistics ...
By Robert Moreira
Great book. Most forecasting books take a very statistics and mathematics heavy approach. Mr. Chase creates the perfect balance of explaining just enough math behind forecasting, as well as, shows how forecasting is applied in the real world with real life examples. As the data driven business world becomes the norm, understanding how predictive analytics is applied is becoming more valuable than the theory of analyzing data.

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014

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Sales Rank: #6033558 in Books
Published on: 2010
Number of items: 2
Binding: Paperback

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Sunday, December 7, 2014

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Sales Rank: #2613214 in Books
Published on: 1947
Number of items: 1
Binding: Paperback
215 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Very Interesting
By Tom Munro
This is quite an interesting book. It was written by a American Officer who served in Europe and the Pacific as a combat officer in the Second World War. For some reason he researched the fire level of American troops. That is the number of Americans who used their weapons in combat. He did this by speaking to individual soldiers after engagements. He found out the rather startling fact that only 25% of troops fired their weapons. The 25% included all who fired their weapons even if they fired them only once. He found that soldiers who had more responsibility, say those who had been allocated machine guns or anti tank weapons were more inclined to fire and those least inclined to fire were rifle men.
The author discusses these findings in some depth in the military context. His approach is aimed at working out strategies to ensure that in a future combat soldiers will use their weapons more efficiently. However he discusses the issue of why soldiers don't use their weapons at some length. He finds that one of the main reasons is the socialization that people have had in American society and how they are affected by the taboos against killing and violence. He suggests that the failure to shoot was unrelated to cowardice as many of the soldiers who did not shoot were in other respects brave and willing to place themselves in danger.
The author discusses a number of ways of overcoming what he saw as the problem. He was of the view that the major problem relates to the nature of modern battle. In previous wars soldiers have tended to be bunched and close to NCO's or Officers. With the advent of modern weapons most soldiers are isolated from command and their fellows. He noted that both German and Japanese soldiers tended to talk amongst themselves almost constantly in combat situations were as Americans did not. He formed the view that conversation was positive in a number of ways. It allowed individual soldiers to know that there were others around and it also created feelings of obligation and support. The tactic of silence on the other hand meant that soldiers became isolated unaware if others were around and fell quickly into despair. In fact the key seems to be the group dynamics of the soldiers unit. Training cannot turn normal people into cold blooded killers but it can build up a sense of belonging and this will lead to individual soldiers fighting to protect their buddies. This is complex and involves the relation between soldiers and also the relations between officers and those they command. The author suggests that during operations soldiers should be told the locations of the positions they fight over and to some extent their importance. While not suggesting jingoism appeals to their role and duty are important.
During the Second World War military training had been on a fairly old model. That is by repetition to create an automatic reflex of obedience. This method is ancient and derived from the time of Frederick the Great. It was designed to ensure fast fire rates when armies used muskets and stood shoulder to shoulder in battle. The crux of this book is that soldiers trained by this method failed when they were separated from their officers and fellows. It suggests that training should involve high standards of discipline but it should aim at training individual soldiers in such a way that they can cope with taking on individual responsibility.
The book is quite short and it is a very interesting book to read on a number of levels. The first is that it dispels a number of myths about the nature of man. The second is that it is a fascinating study of small scale warfare. One of the more interesting books I have read in some time.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By kenneth workman
as promised

8 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Missing the target
By A Customer
The reviewers who confuse the will to fight, destroy, kill. maim the target, your enemy (him/her) miss the point. If you can't hit an area or point target why shoot? It is not necessary to "see" an enemy, "battle drills" teach instinctive, reflex, effective (accurate) fire instantly when attacked. But, even area fire must be accurate (in the area) to be effective. It is accepted doctrine to fire at a window, or base of a tree etc. if that is where the enemy is or is likely to be. The criticism of Marine known distance training vs. "train-fire" (a pre-vietnam term) totally misses the point that you must master your weapon before you move to advanced or combat firing. I speak from the experience of a national match target shooter, marine infantry leader in combat, and review of british, french, and german small arms doctrine as well as training. The totally blind "hosing" of automatic M16(or any other weapon) fire over paddy dikes or around the corner of buildings achieves no effect on the enemy if it isn't hitting where it is intended. Marshall repeatedly points out the fact that men he interviewed felt detached and uninvolved. In many cases they were physically exhausted. Implicit in this "men against fire", and "the soldiers load..." are a number of factors concerning motivation, ferocity and espirit that Marshall only partly addresses. Although he does identify some of the negative influences. In particular his subjects were the US Army and its soldiers, understandable as that was his service and his charter. In particular he points out that direction to fire from leaders was absent. In virtually every case the PFCs, Corporals, Sergeants etc. were not actively leading, directing the rifleman that Marshall interviewed. A fuller understanding of the overall problem would be gained if, at a minimum, one also read "This Kind of War" about Korea. Trying to extrapolate one dreadful incident such as "Blackhawk Down" into a conclusion concerning all small arms marksmanship training/tactics does a dis-service to the actual causes of that disaster and fails to do justice to the seriousness of that particular problem. A very definitive study of the problem of weapons types, firing and effectiveness was done by the British after the failed commando raid on Tobruk in WWII. In essence everyone fired but the weapons mix was wrong. Gaining "fire-superiority" by fighting as a team remains the crux of the problem. The army structure Marshall studied was the squad not the smaller more cohesive fire team or german assault groups of WWI and WWII. On all three of the occassions that I have read men against fire, at various stages of my life, one principal conclusion I have retained is that the conclusions and recommendations lack force and are general. The value of the book is in the documentation of the incidents and the settings and outcome. The conclusions all involve military principals that pre-date gun powder. The goal remains that of insuring the fervent, unwavering belief in the heart/mind of the soldier that it is the enemy who must suffer, be maimed and whose destiny is to die and be destroyed.

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Saturday, December 6, 2014

[M729.Ebook] Free Ebook Women's Voices, Feminist Visions: Classic and Contemporary Readings, by Susan Shaw, Janet Lee

Free Ebook Women's Voices, Feminist Visions: Classic and Contemporary Readings, by Susan Shaw, Janet Lee

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As a leading introductory women's and gender studies reader, Shaw and Lee's Women's Voices, Feminist Visions offers an excellent balance of classic, conceptual, and experiential selections including new contemporary readings. This student-friendly text provides short and accessible readings reflecting the diversity of women's experiences. With each new edition, the authors keep the framework essays and selections of readings fresh and interesting for students.

Sales Rank: #1228 in Books
Published on: 2014-04-23
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.30" w x 7.30" l, 2.45 pounds
Binding: Paperback
784 pages

About the Author

Janet Lee is an Emmy Award-winning television show producer, styling and producing for leading home decorators, entrepreneurs, and designers such as Martha Stewart, B. Smith, and Thom Filicia. During her ten years as a senior producer for The Oprah Show, she worked closely with such style greats as Nate Berkus. She has also been a home decor producer for Lifetime Television's Our Home and was featured on camera as the show's weekend decorator, demonstrating chic, easy DIY projects. She has also appeared on CBS's The Early Show, where she demonstrated her high-end-for-less decor ideas. Now a freelance producer, she lives in New York City.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
I rented this for a class, and I am ...
By Carolyn Huynh
I rented this for a class, and I am loving the actual readings for it. It's very thought provoking about the way people view society, privilege, etc.

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
This textbook is one of the best I have had to read from so far in ...
By Shelby Logsdon
This textbook is one of the best I have had to read from so far in my college experience. It has very helpful chapter introductions that define and explain any terms that are used in that particular chapter. It also includes several different media into these introductions, with many having comic strips, surveys, or polls. It really helped me understand what feminism really is and why it is important. If you are dreading having to work with this book for one of your classes, dont! Some of the readings are long and dry but very informational. Most though, are enjoyable to read, whether they are poetry, real life experiences, or web articles. Definitely recommend this book!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Pretty good textbook, not too dry, very helpful!
By Julwes
My husband had to get this for a college class and it has been very useful for the quizzes he's had to take as well as the writing reflections. Pretty well organized and accessible. Not too dense or dry like so many textbooks can be, interesting content for those already well versed in the subject. Yet for those that are somehow not in the know of the struggle for equality still to this day for women and many groups of people it is an eye opener.

Personally I like the cover too but in the end it's the content of course that matters most!

It's a textbook but a fairly good one. Renting it is how we did it and that seems to be the best way to go unless you intend to go into this as a major then you may want to own a copy.

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Monday, December 1, 2014

[P873.Ebook] Free PDF TOEFL (DIDACTICA) (Spanish Edition), by Victor Hugo Chavez Vazquez

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Sales Rank: #2868128 in Books
Brand: Brand: Selector
Published on: 2010-01-01
Released on: 2007-05-08
Original language: Spanish
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 7.47" h x .35" w x 4.98" l,
Binding: Paperback
128 pages

Features

ISBN13: 9789706439079
Condition: Used - Very Good
Notes: 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!

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